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Since the climactic decline of March 2000, this Bear Market has dragged on.
In fact according to many historians, this is now the longest bear market
in over 60 years see the graphic
which shows ours to be only six months shorter than 1929-32.
Many of us are screaming when will these dark days end!
Have we finally reached a bottom?
We are just not sure if it all has finally collapsed? or when?
Even with the S&P 500 INDEX at 876.64 just two days ago on July 15th
vs. the top on March 2000 at 1527.46
Should I buy? should I hold? should I short?
We sound like the Hamlet's of the investor world. To Buy or Not to Buy?
Is this the worst Bear Market in thirty years?
All eyes are focused on the numbers from Wall St. and the talking heads on CNBC.
There seems to be no logic or semblance of rational explanation.
Well I disagree. The fact is we have been given warnings and explanations.
In fact the last two years, financial astrologers like Bill Meridian of Cycles Research
or Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives have warned us.
Nor did we listen to such venerable Astrologers with 30 plus years of experience
like Robert Hand or Raymond Merriman.
These scholars have been telling us of the Pluto opposition to Saturn.
Saturn and Pluto line up every 33 years as Saturn passes between Pluto and the Earth.
The last two oppositions in recent history occurred Feb 17, 1931 - Dec 13, 1931
and Apr 23, 1965 - Feb 19, 1966 respectively.
This particular Secular Bear Market has resulted in exact oppositions
on Aug 5, 2001 and May 25 2002.
Over the last 24 months we have heard the dreaded word Capitulation bantered about
and shouted preceding the 400 point drop on Monday.
Traditionally Capitulation is when stocks trade down
and then one day the bottom drops out on huge volume.
We still refuse to believe that the bottom maybe here!
even after watching the Dow recover 400 points on July 15th., 2002
Monday was truly amazing: "This is one of the most incredible turnarounds I've seen," said Michael O'Hare, head of block trading for Lehman Brothers.
"People were worried we'd encounter redemption selling and when the mutual funds didn't sell, people had to scramble to cover their shorts."
Yes we continually want someone else to tell us which way the wind is blowing.
Even on Tuesday July 16th, that Old Green Magician and Economic Weatherman
Alan Greenspan couldn't breathe new life into this seemingly dead cat.
All we needed was to wait and not be fooled .
Of course all we get from the Corporate News Media is more depressing stories. Witness Reuters News:
“Even comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
that the U.S. economy has held up "remarkably well" failed to snap widespread pessimism.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index (CBOE:^SPX - News) closed at its lowest since August 1997. “
Well guess what people ? On July 17th 2002 – Greenspan was even more optimistic, in his inimitable understated style:
“ if only the world wouldn't interpret it as hometown cheerleading
Wow, undervalued and this Fed stock valuation mode is the same formula that determined stocks were 50 percent overvalued when the bubble burst in 2000-- and 34 percent overvalued before the crash of 1987.
And we were off and running today! on Wednesday July 17th. 2002.
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Dow snapped a seven-day losing streak Wednesday on the back of positive earnings news from the likes of United Technologies, Boeing and Citigroup.
Still, the blue-chip barometer pared the lion's share of earlier gains by day's end, ending up about 70 points after advancing as much as 250 points.
Hey people Wake up! We are seeing green and things are turning around.
In astrological terms the Pluto Saturn Opposition is waning and moving out of orb.
Baby it is time to Buy!
Have we finally experienced the mythic Holy Grail of predicting a fresh Bull Market? the Capitulation scenario.
Time Travel for a minute to a
FUTURE ALERT on Nov 22nd, 2002!
From CBS MarketWatch.com four short months after my article Witness Nasdaq up 4% on the week; Dow rose 2.6%
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - In July,2002 - they were calling this market the summer of capitulation.
Defined by Webster's as "to give up or surrender conditionally," the five-syllable tongue-teaser is the main topic of conversation among the moneyed classes this season,
from cable shows to cocktail parties, with everybody speculating both when and how the last act will play out in this 28-month bear market.
Yes over the last 18 to 24 months Capitulation has been bantered about with ominous tones
Till every financial analyst from Goldman Sachs Group Inc to Merrill Lynch have tried
to predict when and if Capitulation has occurred. Stocks staged a breathtaking late-day rally on Monday
as bargain-hunting investors snapped up stocks pummeled to 1997 lows and there is more:
Technology stocks led the rebound, yanking up the Nasdaq composite index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) from May 1997 lows touched earlier in the session.
Blue-chip stocks also posted a late rally, scrambling up from a 440-point loss, but still closed lower for the sixth straight session.
Hello!? This is rarer than a tornado touching down in Sunnyvale.
Traditionally Capitulation is when stocks trade down and then one day the bottom drops out on huge volume.
But let’s not darken the Sun when it shines right thru your living room window folks!
We are still trying to find a justification to buy instead of suffering the media’s manipulation by spreading famous Enronitis... and World Com flu.
Ride the Bull Market before it rides over you!
When the bear begins to prowl on main street, the Bull is ready to charge.
If you are still not convinced, Let’s take a little jaunt down memory lane
with an excerpt from an article by James B. Stewart in SmartMoneySelect.com
“Researchers have looked at the last eight bear-market bottoms, from the nadir of the 1973-74 recession to the relatively brief drop from July to August 1998.
This included the precipitous drop of Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, which is significant, because the drama of that day seems to have colored everyone's expectations.
Black Monday was an explosive, panicked sell-off, with volume that day more than 10 times the average.
Though not as dramatic, the pattern held in 1998, when the market bottomed on Aug. 31.< Volume was twice the daily average.
Take 1974. The long bear market that ended on Oct. 3, 1974, is the one most often compared with our recent experience.
Volume that day barely exceeded the daily average of 17.2 million shares.
The drop was modest. Heavy volume came only at the end of that month, and it accompanied a sharp rise in the market, not a further decline.
Indeed, that was the pattern in the bear markets of 1978, 1982 and 1984. The "explosions" came on the upside, after the market had hit bottom
As James B Stewart aptly points out looking at the charts shows that most market bottoms don't look like much
They're just another day in the market, until hindsight renders them significant.
James goes on to recommend certain beat down issues to gobble up on down days.
Well I will not personally recommend any particular stocks. But I will say seize your own power and rely on your Higher Power to guide your decisions with of course due diligence.
Don't let Media Issues cloud your judgement. Even the latest investor challenge Crisis of Confidence issue is aptly debunked by Robert Marcin
Remember none of the Financial Pundits that constantly trip over their own opinions can really do better than the spirit inside each and everyone of us.
In retrospect on Friday July 19th 2002 the Dow hit a post-9/11 low, closing at 8,019.
Is this the bottom? Check out a key contrarian gauge
which points to a possible market reversal back upward --
the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index (CBOE:^VIX - News), is also known as the "Fear Gauge." Look Ahead for BIG NEWS
Biggest Rally of the Year on the Full Moon July 24th .
NEW ALERT Morgan Stanley: Stock Market Has Bottomed
written Thursday October 10, 3:30 pm ET just as Venus turned Retrograde!
Many Blessings
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